Considerettes


Conservative commentary served up in bite-sized bits

November 26th, 2008

Shire Network News #152: Roundtable

Shire Network News #152 has been released. Instead of the usual interview and segments, we did a roundtable discussion between me, Meryl Yourish, Tom Paine and Brian of London. Click here for the show notes, links, and ways to listen to the show; directly from the web site, by downloading the mp3 file, or by subscribing with your podcatcher of choice.

Popularity: 5% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl
November 21st, 2008

Happy Thanksgiving!

Considering that blogging will be light-to-non-existent while I’m on vacation, I thought I’d wish this to you now. 

Popularity: 5% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl
November 20th, 2008

Unwanted Advances at School

In Florida, evidence of a growing problem with the public schools.

At least 150 Florida teachers have been disciplined in the past three years after being accused of sexual misconduct with students, an Orlando Sentinel review has found.

Some of the most severe cases resulted in arrests and criminal convictions for offenses such as secretly watching a boy change and shower, tricking elementary-school girls into touching a man’s genitals and having sex with minor students. But the Sentinel’s case-by-case review of teacher discipline records from the Florida Department of Education found that a lot of the alleged misconduct did not rise to the criminal level.

Still, parents would be alarmed.

[…]

Those 150 cases don’t include the dozens of educators who have been suspended or lost their teaching certificates since 2006 for molesting non-students, downloading porn at school, having sex in public and trying to pick up prostitutes.

There is no research to show whether this is indeed an actual trend or a case of students reporting it more often.  However, there is research, cited later in the article, that shows that students now are very reluctant to report it.

Researchers, however, say far more children are affected by sexual misconduct at school than many people may realize.

The most in-depth study to date, commissioned by the U.S. Department of Education in 2004, showed that nearly 10 percent of the country’s public-school students — 4.5 million children — had received unwanted sexual attention from school employees, including teachers.

Only 11 percent of students who are sexually abused by teachers report it, said Charol Shakeshaft, an education professor at Virginia Commonwealth University who authored the 2004 study and is one of the nation’s top experts on the issue.

If only 11 percent reported it in 2004, we’d have to believe it was in the low-to-mid-single-digits in the decades prior to that.  That’s stretching things rather thin, in my opinion. 

And if only 11 percent are reporting it now, what we’re seeing, in Florida and elsewhere, could be 9 or 10 times worse that it looks. 

Homeschooling keeps looking better all the time.

Popularity: 10% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl
November 19th, 2008

Writings on the Walls

I can work from home a few days a week, and I definitely enjoy doing that.  This morning was my birthday, but as I work up and started my morning ablutions (look it up) I found a couple of Post-It(tm) notes; one stuck to the door of the bathroom and one inside, wishing me a happy birthday.

That was just the beginning.

As I ventured through other places in the house — the hallway, the living room, the kitchen, down the stairs, at my desk — I found more and more of these, placed before I got out of bed this morning.  I’m up to 51 notes so far, and I’ve been informed that I have a few more left to find. 

Some of my favorites:

Hope you don’t go bald (a, no doubt, humorous attempt by my 13-year-old son to make light of my hair deficiency)

Be blessed (a more mature wish from my 8-year-old son)

You are totally awesome (high praise from my 16-year-old daughter)

Thanks for being the best foot-warmer in the world (from my wife; she’ll scoot her feet under me as we sit on the couch)

Thanks for all the times you’ve taken us to laser tag.  I’m going to beat you some time.  (from my 18-year-old daughter who, I’m pretty sure, has already hit that mark; the old man’s not as quick on the draw as he used to be)

Roses are red, violets are blue, something is wierd…, surely not you! (a reference to my odd sense of humor)

Best computer geek ever, but a nice one LOL ROFL

Thanks for all the games you’ve given us  (a reference to computer games, many of them free software, but we do have a good time with them)

You may not be a 900 year old Timelord, but I think you’ll do (Yeah, we’re Doctor Who fans)

Thanks for helping me with my math (a more practical one from the 8-year-old)

And of course many others, some with family inside jokes, but all of them got my day off to a fantastic start.  Just wanted to brag on my family a bit this morning. 

Popularity: 6% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl
November 18th, 2008

Now They Tell Us

In what’s sure to be a common theme in the mainstream media in the coming months, the LA Times is just now really investigating Barack Obama’s background.  In this article, it notices that his resume is quite thin.

In his books, speeches and campaign commercials, Sen. Barack Obama has harked back to his days as a civil-rights attorney.

It is fundamental to his autobiography and was displayed on his campaign Web site and woven into his appeals for votes. In one of his television ads leading up to the South Carolina primary, Obama recalled "working as a civil-rights attorney to make sure that everybody’s vote counted."

Senior attorneys at the small firm where he worked say he was a strong writer and researcher, but was involved in relatively few cases before entering politics.

Hat tip: NewsBusters.

Of course, this information was available for the past 2 years, and yet only today does it get reported.  How…interesting.

Popularity: 7% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl
November 18th, 2008

How Obama Got Elected (.com)

This web site hosts a poll of Obama voters who were asked questions about the US government and the presidential candidates in particular.  The level of non- or mis-information is truly amazing.  There is an accompanying video of 12 of those respondents showing how little they knew about Obama or Biden, but how much they did know about negative reports on Sarah Palin (or mistook what Tina Fey said as a Palin quote). 

While the general lack of knowledge about who Barney Frank is, or who controls the US Congress, may indeed cross political boundaries, what I found interesting is that, of the Obama voters asked, 86% did know that the RNC paid $150,000 for Sarah Palin’s clothes, 93.8% knew she had a pregnant teenage daughter, but only 43.9% knew in who’s home Obama kicked off his political career.  Only 1 of the 12 highlighted in the video even knew the name Bill Ayers.  And yet we were told that the public had heard the Ayers/Weather Underground connection and, based on the continued Obama advantage in the polls, must have considered it uninteresting.

Well perhaps they never heard the information in the first place.  Watch the video and find out where these folks gets their news, and that’ll go a long way to answering that question.

Popularity: 9% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl
November 17th, 2008

New Age Religion + Tech Icons + Hollywood Glitz = Bad Copy of Ancient Truths

An interesting combination of cultural icons are coming together to make chowder out of the world’s religions.

A website launched Friday with the backing of technology industry and Hollywood elite urges people worldwide to help craft a framework for harmony between all religions.

The Charter for Compassion project on the Internet at www.charterforcompassion.org springs from a "wish" granted this year to religious scholar Karen Armstrong at a premier Technology, Entertainment and Design (TED) conference in California.

"Tedizens" include Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin along with other Internet icons as well as celebrities such as Forest Whittaker and Cameron Diaz.

Wishes granted at TED envision ways to better the world and come with a promise that Tedizens will lend their clout and capabilities to making them come true.

Indeed, this group of intellectual heavyweights wants to reconcile all world religions into one, bland, least common denominator.  And here’s where they’re starting from.

Armstrong’s wish is to combine universal principles of respect and compassion into a charter based on a "golden rule" she believes is at the core of every major religion.

The Golden Rule essentially calls on people to do unto others as they would have done unto them.

Except that, if I may speak for Christianity, that’s not "at the core" of my religion.  From the Old Testament, the 10 Commandments might be closer to the core.  And from the New Testament, you’d have this from Mark chapter 12:

One of the teachers of the law came and heard them debating. Noticing that Jesus had given them a good answer, he asked him, "Of all the commandments, which is the most important?"

"The most important one," answered Jesus, "is this: ‘Hear, O Israel, the Lord our God, the Lord is one.  Love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind and with all your strength.’  The second is this: ‘Love your neighbor as yourself.’ There is no commandment greater than these."

While that second commandment sounds like the Golden Rule, one must remember that it is predicated on the first commandment.  Thus, it’s not just a case of simple actions, but one of attitude.  It requires that how to love your neighbor be a shared value between you and God, and that who God is is also a shared value. 

Thus, simply doing unto others is of no eternal consequence or value if the attitude behind it is not there.  It’s pretty clear who Jesus was referring to by "God"; Israel’s God.  And when Jesus said later that the only way to God the Father was through Himself, He left no options open for this chowder-izing of major world religions. 

Much like other new-age-type religions that seek to do the same thing, this effort is simply a way to water it all down.  Christianity is, at its core, a relationship, not a religion.  As much as others may contend that it’s nothing but a bunch of rules, I’d note that this effort is more deserving of that type of scorn; turning a relationship with a loving God into just a set of do’s and don’ts. 

Popularity: 6% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl
November 17th, 2008

Political Cartoon: Jumpstarting the Economy

From Chuck Asay:

Chuck Asay cartoon

Popularity: 8% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl
November 14th, 2008

Keeping a Promise In Spite Of Himself

Barack Obama may be able to get the troops out of Iraq in 16 months mostly because George W. Bush’s surge did so well.  Via Instapundit:

"THE WAR IS OVER AND WE WON:" Michael Yon just phoned from Baghdad, and reports that things are much better than he had expected, and he had expected things to be good. "There’s nothing going on. I’m with the 10th Mountain Division, and about half of the guys I’m with haven’t fired their weapons on this tour and they’ve been here eight months. And the place we’re at, South Baghdad, used to be one of the worst places in Iraq. And now there’s nothing going on. I’ve been walking my feet off and haven’t seen anything. I’ve been asking Iraqis, ‘do you think the violence will kick up again,’ but even the Iraqi journalists are sounding optimistic now and they’re usually dour." There’s a little bit of violence here and there, but nothing that’s a threat to the general situation. Plus, not only the Iraqi Army, but even the National Police are well thought of by the populace. Training from U.S. toops [sic] has paid off, he says, in building a rapport.

If Obama had had his way, this wouldn’t have happened.  But if & when he has the troops home on or before April 2010, it will be because Dubya laid the foundation for it.

Popularity: 11% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl
November 14th, 2008

The Basics

For this who may need a refresher, a tip from LaShawn Barber.

Reading this Newsweek story for a Pajamas Media TV segment I’m taping in an hour tomorrow, one paragraph stopped me cold (emphasis added):

“If this week’s exit polls tell us anything about religion, they remind us that there are tens of millions of voters in this country who believe in God, read their Scripture, pray, regularly attend a house of worship—and do not consider themselves born-again Christians.”

OK. For the record, there is no such thing as a Christian who has not been born again. To say you believe in God, go to church every Sunday, etc., doesn’t mean you’re a Christian. People worship all kind of gods and go to church for various reasons. The questions is, is Christ your Lord and Savior? If someone has been forgiven, he has been born again, no matter what cultural or social connotations the term born again (white fundamentalist Bible-thumpers?) has been burdened with. Those saved by grace through faith in Christ understand what the term means biblically.

Born again or rebirth in Christ refers to the process that takes place when Christ saves/forgives someone. Here’s the imagery: the former man was crucified with Christ, and the new man was resurrected with Christ when he rose from the dead. The new man is renewed, regenerated…re-born. Day by day, God guides us, chastises us, and loves us, molding and shaping us into the image of his Son.

If you believe the Lord Jesus Christ suffered and died for your sins, and you trust in this sacrifice alone for the forgiveness of your sins, born again applies to you, whether you’re white, black, blue, Baptist, Presbyterian, Lutheran, Roman Catholic, or whatever else they’ve got.

I’m not quite sure what Newsweek writers think the term means.  Perhaps this usage of it shows how many people in church go through all the motions, but don’t see themselves as born-again.  (Although the usual case is that it’s the other way around; they go through the motions, never have a relationship with Jesus, and do consider themselves born-again.)  Perhaps this is the media adding its own connotations to the term.

Whatever the case, LaShawn gets it right.

Popularity: 7% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl
November 12th, 2008

How the Media Fared in the Campaign

Short answer:  Not very well, and it doesn’t appear they care.

Long answer:

The adulation given to Barack Obama was far more than can be accounted for by his historic run for the Presidency.  It got so bad before the election that Michael S. Malone, a tech journalist for ABC News, got to the point he was "deeply ashamed to be called a ‘journalist’".  Michael explained, back in late October:

For many years, spotting bias in reporting was a little parlor game of mine, watching TV news or reading a newspaper article and spotting how the reporter had inserted, often unconsciously, his or her own preconceptions.  But I always wrote it off as bad judgment, and lack of professionalism, rather than bad faith and conscious advocacy.  Sure, being a child of the ‘60s I saw a lot of subjective “New” Journalism, and did a fair amount of it myself, but that kind of writing, like columns and editorials, was supposed to be segregated from ‘real’ reporting, and at least in mainstream media, usually was.  The same was true for the emerging blogosphere, which by its very nature was opinionated and biased.

But my complacent faith in my peers first began to be shaken when some of the most admired journalists in the country were exposed as plagiarists, or worse, accused of making up stories from whole cloth.  I’d spent my entire professional career scrupulously pounding out endless dreary footnotes and double-checking sources to make sure that I never got accused of lying or stealing someone else’s work - not out any native honesty, but out of fear: I’d always been told to fake or steal a story was a firing offense . . .indeed, it meant being blackballed out of the profession.

[…]

But nothing, nothing I’ve seen has matched the media bias on display in the current Presidential campaign.  Republicans are justifiably foaming at the mouth over the sheer one-sidedness of the press coverage of the two candidates and their running mates.  But in the last few days, even Democrats, who have been gloating over the pass - no, make that shameless support - they’ve gotten from the press, are starting to get uncomfortable as they realize that no one wins in the long run when we don’t have a free and fair press.  I was one of the first people in the traditional media to call for the firing of Dan Rather - not because of his phony story, but because he refused to admit his mistake - but, bless him, even Gunga Dan thinks the media is one-sided in this election.

[…]

The absolute nadir (though I hate to commit to that, as we still have two weeks before the election) came with Joe the Plumber.  Middle America, even when they didn’t agree with Joe, looked on in horror as the press took apart the private life of an average person who had the temerity to ask a tough question of a Presidential candidate.  So much for the Standing Up for the Little Man, so much for Speaking Truth to Power, so much for Comforting the Afflicted and Afflicting the Comfortable, and all of those other catchphrases we journalists used to believe we lived by.

Read the whole thing(tm).  Malone is more certainly not against reporters digging for the dirt (he supported the "reportorial SWAT teams" sent to Alaska to see what they could find about Gov. Palin).  What he is aghast at, however, was how utterly unbalanced this hardball treatment was. 

Aside from the viciousness given mostly to Republicans and their supporters, the Pew Research Center found that McCain’s news coverage was incredibly lopsided.

Slightly fewer than a third of the stories about Obama were negative, whereas more than a third were positive and about the same number were neutral or mixed. More than half of the stories about McCain cast him in a negative light, whereas fewer than 2 in 10 were positive, according to Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism.

The study suggests that advancement in the polls does translate into more positive coverage, but with the polls so tight this season, bouncing around in the high 40s & low 50s for so long, that explanation doesn’t really fit.

The Washington Post ombudsman, Deborah Howell, also says that her paper tilted towards Obama and didn’t really cover the issues well.  The big question is, will this translate into better coverage?  With the media still in the tank for Democrats after decades of being that way, it doesn’t seem likely.

Just ask Chris Matthews:

CHRIS MATTHEWS: Yeah, well, you know what? I want to do everything I can to make this thing work, this new presidency work, and I think that –

JOE SCARBOROUGH: Is that your job? You just talked about being a journalist!

MATTHEWS: Yeah, it is my job. My job is to help this country.

The phrase "speaking the truth to power" is about to drop quickly out of fashion in national media circles.

Popularity: 9% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl
November 11th, 2008

The Electoral College

[This is a repost of an entry I wrote 4 years ago, in response to a question posed to a blogging group I belonged to.  The question was, "Is it time for the U.S. to end the Electoral College? If so, in favor of what alternative system? If not, why is it still relevant and beneficial to the nation?"  With support for efforts like the National Popular Vote rising, I thought it was a good time for a repost of this. 

Note that the link to the document below has been updated to link to the PDF directly.  The web page itself that had the link no longer exists.]

I’ve actually talked a little bit abut this issue as far back as the 2000 election. Back then, I found a document on the web site of the Federal Elections Commission called “A Brief History of the Electoral College”. It hasn’t been updated to note the popular vs. electoral vote situation in the 2000 election itself, but it is a fascinating and educational look into the issues surrounding the creation of the Electoral College. Read that first before making up your mind.

This paper identifies two main requirements that the Electoral College imposes on candidates for the presidency:

  • The victor must obtain a sufficient popular vote to enable him to govern, even if it’s not an absolute majority, and
  • The popular vote must be sufficiently distributed across the country to enable him to govern.

What this means is that the winner has balanced regional support, even if that balance is tipped in favor of distribution rather than absolute numbers (as it was in 1888 and again in 2000).

The paper presents a number of pros and cons of the Electoral College and is a fairly balanced look at it, although it does come out in favor of it ultimately. I’d like to highlight just one of its points and add one of my own.

Minorities: With the Electoral College, the voice of minorities in this country is enhanced so that they cannot be so easily dismissed by candidates. Small minorities in a State can (and have) been able to be the difference between winning all of a State’s electoral votes or none. Without this clout, blacks, Hispanics, farmers, Iowans, or whatever other group you can come up with can have a larger voice in the matter, and this speaks to one of the ideas of America.

If the President was selected solely on the basis of popular vote, a candidate could simply ignore minorities who’s votes wouldn’t matter in the big picture. Getting a bare majority of the big city vote can be enough to get the electoral votes of California or New York, but then the candidate needs to appeal elsewhere in other states and among other groups of people to win the Presidency. If popular vote was all that mattered, the candidate could just continue to appeal to the wants & needs of those in highly concentrated population areas. This would not be in the best interest of a country that wants the President to be the President for everyone. Thus the Electoral College forces the issue of minority views into the national debate, which is good for all of us.

Voter Fraud: Under the current system, a candidate gets the same number of electoral votes for a state, whether he takes 50%+1 of the popular vote for that state or 100% of it. Thus any attempts to rig an election in a state are pointless after a majority is reached. Therefore, in order to have an impact nationally, the fraud must be widespread, in multiple states, rather than allowing it to work with only a few “friendly” areas involved. This makes voter fraud less of a viable tactic, and diminishes its impact when used.

Again, the paper linked above has quite a bit more, but these two issues are the ones that are one the top of my list. The paper ends this way:

The fact that the Electoral College was originally designed to solve one set of problems but today serves to solve an entirely different set of problems is a tribute to the genius of the Founding Fathers and to the durability of the American federal system.

I’d have to agree.

Popularity: 7% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl
November 10th, 2008

Back to the Future

This was the title of a post on Redstate by Aaron Gardner, regarding where the Republican Party goes from here.  Gardner started, as his foundation of what the Republicans need to stand for, from the party platform of 1980, when Reagan was swept into the White House with 489 electoral votes.  He made some of his own modifications, but overall the (lengthy) statement stands as a good starting point.

Read the rest of this entry »

Popularity: 18% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl
November 7th, 2008

Election Post-Mortem

I was on the road again this week, so not much time for a post-election wrap-up from me.  But now that the dust has settled, let me knock out a few thoughts.

1.  Exit polls indicate that the number of self-described liberals in this country and the number of self-described conservatives hasn’t changed hardly at all since the last election, and conservatives hold a 12 percentage point lead (34 to 22).  This is still a center-right country.  Obama would do well to remember that.

2.  You win with your base, and McCain took too long to pick it up.  Now, I know that others (our own contributor, Jim, being one) have said that the base took too long to converge around the candidate, but I have to respectfully disagree; I think that’s entirely backwards.  Conservatives in the Republican party have always looked at McCain with a cocked eye, and they — or, to be honestly inclusive, we — had a tough time with many of his positions.  Our minds weren’t going to be changed overnight because he won the nomination.  That’s not principled.

Conversely, McCain did, in fact, make moves to the right that eventually won over the base, but I don’t think he did it quickly enough.  However, if you win with (or lose without) your base, what about the highly-touted independents that were supposed to make McCain so popular?  The answer is…

3.  …they largely split between the two candidates, which throws out all the conventional wisdom on how to win elections.  It’s been all about the "bell curve", that huge group of voters in the center; neither Left or Right.  In a race between a center-Right candidate and a hard-Left one, the conventional wisdom was that the more centrist candidate would pull in the middle in droves.  That didn’t happen.  Karl Rove, love ‘im or hate ‘im, was right, as Dan McLaughlin noted on Redstate:

Karl Rove’s theory - one he perhaps never explicitly articulated, but which was evident in the approach to multiple elections, votes in Congress, and even international coalitions run by his boss, George W. Bush - was, essentially, that you win with your base. You start with the base, you expand it as much as possible by increasing turnout, and then you work outward until you get past 50% - but you don’t compromise more than necessary to get to that goal.

Standing in opposition to the Rove theory was what one might call the Beltway Pundit theory, since that’s who were the chief proponents of the theory. The Beltway Pundit theory was, in essence, that America has a great untapped middle, a center that resists ideology and partisanship and would respond to a candidate who could present himself as having a base in the middle of the electorate.

Tonight, we had a classic test of those theories. Barack Obama is nothing if not the pure incarnation on the left of the Rovian theory. He ran in the Democratic primaries as the candidate of the ‘Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.’ His record was pure left-wing all the way. He seems to have brought out a large number of new base voters, in particular African-Americans responding to his racial appeals and voting straight-ticket D. As I’ll discuss in a subsequent post, the process of getting to 50.1% for a figure of the left is more complex and involves more concerted efforts at concealment and dissimulation, but the basic elements of the Rovian strategy are all there.

John McCain, by contrast, was the Platonic ideal Beltway Pundit-style candidate, and his defeat by Obama ensures that his like will not win a national nomination any time soon, in either party. McCain spent many years establishing himself as a pragmatic moderate, dissenting ad nauseum and without a consistent unifying principle from GOP orthodoxy; McCain had veered to the center simply whenever he felt that the Republican position was too far. McCain held enough positions that were in synch with the conservative base to make him minimally acceptable, but nobody ever regarded him as a candidate to excite the conservative base.

Yes, this is essentially a restatement of point 2, but where as #2 is looking from the Right, #3 is looking from the center. 

Also keep in mind that the center is where most undecided voters live, some of whom don’t decide who to vote for until they in the voting booth.  Reagan won by sticking to his conservative principles and Obama won on his liberal credentials (spreading the wealth around, socializing health care, anti-war).  It wasn’t the blowout it should have been, given the perfect storm of an unpopular President, and unpopular war and a tanking economy, but a win is a win.

UPDATE:  John Hawkins concurs:  Top 7 Reasons Why the GOP Can’t Build a Political Party Around Moderates.

4.  McCain was hoist on his own petard; McCain/Feingold.  On election night, you could almost hear, in the back of your head, a voice-over saying, "This election brought to you by…campaign finance reform."  Another element of the perfect storm for Obama was the fact that he reneged on his promise to stick to public financing and hugely outspent McCain (yet still only managed an average victory).  This unconstitutional (in my humble opinion) program restricts free political speech, arguably what the First Amendment is precisely about.  McCain/Feingold is dead, for all intents and purposes.  At least it’s now irrelevant. 

 

I still respect McCain as a politician and a bridge-builder, and I believe he would have made a far better President than the one we’re going to get.  But cheer up, Republicans.  At least Obama is going to pay for your gas and your mortgage.

Popularity: 9% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl
November 7th, 2008

What Would We Do Without Studies?

They spent money on this?

Sexual content on television is strongly associated with teen pregnancy, a new study from the RAND Corporation shows.

Researchers at the nonprofit organization found that adolescents with a high level of exposure to television shows with sexual content are twice as likely to get pregnant or impregnate someone as those who saw fewer programs of this kind over a period of three years. It is the first study to demonstrate this association, RAND said.

Next week, RAND comes out with their study that gravity leads to falling.

The suggested remedy is equally obvious.

A central message from the study is that there needs to be more dialogue about sex in the media, particularly among parents and their children, said Anita Chandra, the study’s lead author and a behavioral scientist at RAND.

Although the Hollywood culture is certainly a major contributor to the oversexualization of the media (and they could do their part, but won’t, and will whine publicly and loudly if you suggest they do), parents still need to be the gatekeeper.

As my kids would say, "Thank you, Captain Obvious!"

Popularity: 11% [?]

Share the Linkage:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.
  • digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Furl
  • Fark
  • YahooMyWeb
  • TailRank
  • Reddit
  • De.lirio.us
  • blogmarks
  • co.mments
  • Ma.gnolia
  • NewsVine
  • RawSugar
  • Simpy
  • Spurl