Democrats | Considerettes https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes Conservative commentary served up in bite-sized bits Fri, 02 Oct 2015 22:47:46 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Nobel Regrets https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3666 https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3666#respond Mon, 05 Oct 2015 20:14:00 +0000 http://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3666 Quick trivia question: Who won Nobel Peace Prize in 2009? The answer; newly-elected President Barack Obama. And the obvious follow-up question is, why? To his credit, he wasn’t sure why either. The thought was that this would encourage him to be a peace-maker. A new book is at least shedding some light on the regrets […]

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Quick trivia question: Who won Nobel Peace Prize in 2009? The answer; newly-elected President Barack Obama. And the obvious follow-up question is, why? To his credit, he wasn’t sure why either. The thought was that this would encourage him to be a peace-maker. A new book is at least shedding some light on the regrets that the Nobel committee had in making that decision.

In a new memoir titled "Secretary of Peace: 25 years with the Nobel Prize," Geir Lundestad, the non-voting Director of the Nobel Institute until 2014, writes that he has developed doubts about the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s decision to grant Obama the Nobel Peace Prize over the past six years. While the prize was designed to encourage the new president, it may have not have worked out as intended.

When I posted this on the “Consider This!” Facebook page (my podcast), listener Pil Orbison said that, while President Obama wasn’t a Helen Keller or Indira Ghandi, no two Nobel prizes are alike. She said that what Obama did for the economy and healthcare certainly gave others a better outlook on our nation, and no other President could have done that.

Let’s set aside whether or not what Obama has done has improved either the economy or health care. The Nobel Peace prize is for what you actually have accomplished, not for what the committee hopes you will accomplish. That standard isn’t applied to any other Nobel Prize. They don’t give out the Chemistry award for what someone might discover, or to someone who shows promise in that field. The Peace Prize has, or should have, the same criteria.

Sure, the Nobel committee can have whatever criteria they want, but this article shows what can happen when you pin your hopes on a guy just because of his politics or the promises he made on the campaign trail. Politicizing the prize cheapens it for those who truly deserve it; people like Albert Schweitzer, Martin Luther King, Jr., Malala Yousafzai, or PLO terrorist Yassar Arafat. Oh yes, he got one too.

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The Guns of Oregon https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3662 https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3662#respond Fri, 02 Oct 2015 21:14:00 +0000 http://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3662 On October 1st, 2015, Chris Harper-Mercer went onto the campus of Umpqua Community College in Roseburg, Oregon, went into a classroom, and started shooting. As I write this, the death toll sits at 9, with 7 wounded. It shocked the nation, again. As it should. The President of the United States held a press conference […]

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On October 1st, 2015, Chris Harper-Mercer went onto the campus of Umpqua Community College in Roseburg, Oregon, went into a classroom, and started shooting. As I write this, the death toll sits at 9, with 7 wounded. It shocked the nation, again. As it should. The President of the United States held a press conference to express condolences to the families of the victims, as he should. The problem was, he didn’t stop there. He followed up his comforting words immediately with fightin’ words.

Just 6 hours after the shooting, and when details about it were still very sketchy, President Obama came out with guns blazing, so to speak, pushing for more gun control. We didn’t know the name of the shooter, we didn’t know how he got the guns, and we weren’t even sure of the casualty count. But none of that mattered to him. I understand and share his anger and frustration at the various mass shootings in this country, but even before we knew any relevant details, he was out there calling again for “common-sense gun-safety laws”.

This is a classic mistake that politicians of both parties make; jumping the gun, so to speak, in order to make political points while the emotions are high. They propose new laws in order to be seen as doing something, even if that something would have done nothing to solve the problem at hand. They try to get their agenda passed because something must be done, and this is something, so it must be done.

Those who despise the Patriot Act should realize that part of the reason it passed was because it was “something”. I think the Patriot Act has actually kept us safer, but it did indeed go too far in certain areas and needed to be scaled back. Passing gun control while emotions are high, and before we even know where our current laws failed, would make the same exact mistake. Keep that in mind. The President said that he thought this issue should be politicized. Sorry, but that’s the worst idea ever.

One thing I’m concerned about is that banning or confiscating all guns would result from a too-quick reaction. Now, before you say, “Come on, no one’s suggesting banning guns”, let me give you a quote from President Obama’s press conference.

We know that other countries, in response to one mass shooting, have been able to craft laws that almost eliminate mass shootings. Friends of ours, allies of ours — Great Britain, Australia, countries like ours. So we know there are ways to prevent it.

So then, what were Great Britain’s and Australia’s answer to the problem? Banning and confiscating guns. So yes, people are talking about it. The President himself is talking about it. So you can’t just dismiss that argument.

And has it worked for those countries? No, it hasn’t. In the case of the UK, a decade after a near total ban on guns, gun crime had doubled. And what about Australia, where they banned many guns and did a forced buy-back program? From 1997 until 2003, gun murders did in fact drop. Three percent. After 6 years, they dropped just 3%. Is it working for them? I guess it depends on your definition of “working”. Oh, and during that same time period, firearm deaths in America drop by 10 times as much.

And one more thing to consider regarding gun control laws; these mass shootings keep happening in gun-free zones. Some on the Left have tried to argue that the UCC campus was not a gun-free zone, because Oregon law allows those with state concealed-carry permits to bring them on campus. But campus rules don’t allow you to bring them into buildings, which is their right. And if you don’t have a concealed carry permit, the school doesn’t allow you to have a gun without their expressed permission. So it’s as gun-free as they could possibly make it, legally.

The bottom line: Gun control isn’t working. Criminals choose the path of least resistance, and gun-free zones, and unarmed citizens, are right in the middle of that path.

So the obvious question is; what does work? Well, if you’ve been listening to my podcast for a while, you probably know what I’m going to say. So instead of rehashing my thoughts, you can click here to hear or see (via full transcript) any episode where gun control is mentioned. In that category you’ll find episodes talking about how Israel has stopped school shootings by allowing teachers who have served in the Israeli Defense Force to carry guns at school and on field trips, or the result of the Washington, DC gun ban, or the Harvard study showing that banning guns doesn’t decrease the murder rate, or the UN maps showing that where gun ownership is higher the homicide rate is lower, or how relaxing some of the incredibly restrictive gun law in Chicago dropped the homicide rate to record lows.

Dispute the facts presented if you like, but the President appealed to the authority of opinion polls rather than the facts. He mockingly asked whether people really believe what we need are more guns. He also said, “We know that states with the most gun laws tend to have the fewest gun deaths.” Yes, well tell that to the people in the cities of Chicago, or Baltimore, or Washington, DC, or any of a number of other cities where gun restrictions have served to only increase the deaths.

You know what 9 dead and 7 wounded is called in Chicago? Saturday. The facts are out there, Mr. President, if you have the courage and honesty to deal with them. Otherwise, you can go off half-cocked, so to speak, appeal to emotions, and pass bad legislation. Your choice.

I share the President’s frustration regarding mass shootings in this country. I also see how the steps we’ve taken to reduce them have failed miserably; something he apparently doesn’t notice. Or won’t.

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Lessons From the Greek Tragedy https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3648 https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3648#respond Fri, 24 Jul 2015 21:42:00 +0000 http://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3648 Imagine, if you will, a guy who fills out a loan application, but lies on it about his current financial situation, or he tells the truth about his bad situation but signs a promise to get his financial house in order if he can get this loan. Now let’s say he doesn’t make the changes […]

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Imagine, if you will, a guy who fills out a loan application, but lies on it about his current financial situation, or he tells the truth about his bad situation but signs a promise to get his financial house in order if he can get this loan. Now let’s say he doesn’t make the changes he promised, but spends the money on the same things that got him into the mess he was in before the loan. When it’s time to make payments on the loan, he complains he doesn’t have the money and wants to renegotiate the terms of the existing loan and get a new one.

You’re the loan officer. What do you do? The guy’s telling you he needs the money to eat and to pay his other bills. But he didn’t change his free-spending ways like he promised and now he’s in a bind again. Is it prudent to give more cash to a guy who can’t change his spending habits, and can’t repay what you’ve already given him?

No, it’s not. That’s not being heartless; that’s just being a good steward of the bank’s money. And if you keep giving this guy money, and he doesn’t repay it, what about the depositors who’s money it is that you’re handing out? When they need their money, where will it be?

The guy I’m talking about is the country of Greece. And just like Margaret Thatcher’s description, their socialism was working great, right up until they ran out of other people’s money. You can only soak the rich for so long, and so they went to the European and international banks for bailouts. And more bailouts. But each time, though they promised to mend their free-spending, socialist ways, they didn’t and wound up in the same situation.

There are 2 major problems that this situation has highlighted. First, the European Union has certainly caused state sovereignty to seep out of the individual countries, such that it’s understandable why citizens of Greece would be insisting that the EU be held at least partially responsible. If Greece must bow to the EU on some matters, the EU must be willing to help. With great power-grabs come great responsibility.

But the other major problem is one that our own country needs to come to terms with. The Greek government got in over its head with promises it made to various groups. Welfare, pension, and other government payments got to the point where merely servicing those was drowning the country in debt. They made the promises, so they had to keep them. And when the government over-promised, the people voted in politicians who would give them more stuff, until the government had to tax and tax, and borrow and borrow, to keep up. And all that taxing and borrowing reduces economic growth and devalues the currency. So more taxing and more borrowing, and the death spiral continues.

So then, who should pay for the bad choices of the Greek people? Should we allow the Greeks to default on their obligations, and then have the German and the French people have to bail out their banks? How in the world is that fair? “But what about the Greek people?”, those on the Left were asking when those Greek people voted to stiff their creditors. “Why should they be punished for the actions of their government?” Well, because they voted for the guy who squandered the money and walked into the bank to ask for more. And if the Greeks are let off the hook, there are other European countries looking to try the same ploy. I’m looking at you, Spain, Portugal and Italy.

The problem is that the Greeks poked a big hole in their own boat, and no amount of bailing by themselves will keep them afloat. More bailers, if you will, would help, and the EU is going to continue to help in the bailing, but the Greeks need to agree to quit making the hole bigger, and take steps to plug it. That’s going to take some hard choices on their part, but that’s the problem with socialism. Once you get used to the idea of free money and benefits, you get to thinking that they are your “right”. Going back to fiscal responsibility is a much harder road to travel.

The Greeks are learning that lesson. Well, I hope they are. I’m not so sure after they voted to default on their loans. I also hope that we’ll learn it, too. But I begin to wonder about my fellow countrymen when I see how popular presidential candidate Bernie Sanders is, who is an avowed socialist. “Ignore the News, Vote for Sanders!”

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The Supreme Court Decrees Same-Sex Marriage to be the Law of the Land https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3646 https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3646#respond Thu, 16 Jul 2015 22:00:00 +0000 http://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3646 In June of 2013, the Supreme Court’s liberals declared that the Defense of Marriage Act, which was passed by Congress and signed by President Bill Clinton, was unconstitutional, because, as they said, the power of the individual state in defining marriage is “of central relevance", and the decision to grant same-sex couples the right to […]

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In June of 2013, the Supreme Court’s liberals declared that the Defense of Marriage Act, which was passed by Congress and signed by President Bill Clinton, was unconstitutional, because, as they said, the power of the individual state in defining marriage is “of central relevance", and the decision to grant same-sex couples the right to marry is "of immense import." Basically, it’s the state, and not the federal government, which should determine what marriage is and license accordingly.

Two years to the day later, those same liberals overrode those immensely important marriage laws in 14 states and proclaimed same-sex marriage from the federal bench. And it once again proves something I’ve said on this podcast so many times; for the Left, it is all about politics. Constitutional matters, federalism, and some supposed regard for the rule of law, all of it, take a back seat in order to get their political agenda passed. The individual state’s ability to define what marriage is, is of central relevance, right up until it isn’t.

Chief Justice John Roberts, in his dissent, noted this, "This court is not a legislature. Whether same-sex marriage is a good idea should be of no concern to us.” Right, that’s what states were allowed to determine on their own, and in fact it was going that way with, as I said, only 14 states left holding on to traditional marriage.

I will say, as an aside, that this thought by Roberts – that the court is not a legislature – was rather ironic, given his previous rewriting of ObamaCare. It’s like two, two, two Supreme Court chief justices in one!

Let me ask you this; which would have been better? Should the Court have allowed same-sex marriage to work its way through the culture, gaining support as it had been doing, or do what it did and just impose it by judicial fiat? Before you answer, consider how well that worked for abortion. It is still a hard fought battle in the culture, and in the state legislatures as well. Rather than let it organically happen democratically, abortion was imposed, and the backlash has been with us ever since. I oppose abortion, and I also oppose a government that will override me and my state’s rights to govern ourselves. I oppose same-sex marriage, but again, the Court’s liberals (and if I may, it seems that liberals in general) have no problem holding state law immensely important one day, and the next day overruling them, so long as their political agenda is served. As I mentioned in the previous episode, the process is just as important as the outcome, and the process, both here and with the ObamaCare ruling, are deeply flawed and set a bad precedent for future courts to reinterpret words, and override the will of the people.

There have been many predictions about what comes next. Some, on the pages of TIME magazine, are already pushing polygamy. That effort has been going on for years, but it got a boost with this ruling. There are those already calling for the abolishing of tax exempt status for religious institutions – churches and religious schools – that won’t teach the liberal orthodoxy about same-sex marriage or won’t perform them. These are likely coming down the road. But, as Erick Erickson noted, the first thing to come will be … silence. The day of the ruling, a newspaper in Pennsylvania said they wouldn’t print letters to the editor on the topic anymore. I have a friend who, when asked what the Bible says about homosexuality, gave a straight answer (so to speak) and was immediately pounced on for being bigoted and hateful. You don’t have to thump anyone with a Bible anymore; it just has to be in the room for someone to claim you’re evil.

So silence will fall, but just because you don’t hear a particular opinion anymore doesn’t mean it’s not there. However, if a baker or a photographer can be put out of business for not participating in a same-sex wedding, how much more of a target are those churches that won’t perform them for what 5 justices have now deemed is a “fundamental right”?


With the ObamaCare and the same-sex marriage rulings, the court has done two things. It has taken power away from you at both the federal and state level.

If you ever complained that Washington, DC was unresponsive to the needs of the people, the ObamaCare ruling should bother you, at the very least. That is, unless you’re celebrating the topic of the ruling, then the process is likely nothing you’re concerned about. I’ve seen it in my Facebook feed. However, from this day forward, federal agencies like the IRS, and all the way up to the President, don’t have to restrain themselves to the actual wording of the laws Congress passes. ObamaCare said you got subsidies through exchanges established by the states, but an unelected federal agency changed that. Your representatives, and by extension you, have lost more influence. The government can do what it wants.

And if you ever complained that your state government was unresponsive to the needs of the people, the same-sex marriage ruling should bother you, too. But again, the winners are too busy celebrating to see how this, too, has erased their influence and yours at the state level. It just takes 5 Supreme Court justices to invalidate anything a state does. Vote however you want, call your state representative as much as you want, but in the end, a majority of 9 unelected justices get the final say for over 320 million people. One man, one vote, indeed.

If you celebrate these rulings, and if you’ve ever been a proponent of power to the people, or you’ve ever put forth the idea that every vote should count, you either have not been paying attention, or have no idea at all what those phrases even mean. At least, I’d really hope that this can all be explained by ignorance and apathy, because the alternative is worse; willful misuse of the founding principles of this country, and that will bring us down faster than any law you can pass.

The Left loves the platitude “Government is just another name for the things we choose to do together.” Of course, by the phrase “choose to do together”, they mean “use a panel of 9 lawyers to force everyone to do what they want”. Platitudes are useful in the meantime, but in the end, for the Left, it’s all about politics.

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How One-Party Rule Has Affected Cities https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3631 https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3631#respond Mon, 22 Jun 2015 21:36:00 +0000 http://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3631 A few thoughts on this particular subject. Chicago, Illinois; the safest city in the US because of its strict gun control laws. Heh, no, not really. It’s got some of the highest gun crime in the country in spite of, or perhaps because of, it’s strict gun control laws. Gun control is one of those […]

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A few thoughts on this particular subject.

Chicago, Illinois; the safest city in the US because of its strict gun control laws. Heh, no, not really. It’s got some of the highest gun crime in the country in spite of, or perhaps because of, it’s strict gun control laws. Gun control is one of those things that liberals insist works in spite of the reality to the contrary.

Here’s another: in spite of Chicago being a liberal paradise – not having a single Republican governor for over 80 years since 1931 – somehow the city’s economy is crumbling. It’s Democrats who keep insisting that they, and not Republicans, know how to bring the poor out of their situation, and believe that if we only spend enough money on a problem, it’ll get solved by government. And yet Moody’s Investor Service, which rates, among other things, the municipal bonds of cities, has downgraded Chicago’s credit rating to junk level. It also said that the city’s future outlook is negative, which I guess means that someday the credit rating could drop to “extra junk”, “junkier”, or maybe “double secret junk”.

I’ve mentioned Detroit, Michigan in the past. They’ve had Democratic mayors since 1962; about 30 years less than Chicago, but still over half a century. And yet the economy and infrastructure have seen better days. The city of Baltimore, Maryland was in the headlines for riots over the death of a black youth in police custody, and the state of its economy came to the fore during that; an economy where poverty was still rampant. And its mayors? Only 1 Republican since 1947.

In all these cases, and many others, the promise of liberal policies has not lived anywhere close to expectations. It has been said (a lot) that one definition of ‘insanity’ is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Now, this might be a crazy idea, but what if cities like these started voting in Republicans for a change? If half a century of single (or nearly-single) party rule hasn’t helped, how about giving some new ideas a chance? This would mean giving them a shot for more than 1 or two terms, of course. Decades of mismanagement won’t be overturned overnight.

Will Republicans screw it up? Could be. Maybe. But how will you know until you give it a try? They might just start to turn things around. Or you could just keep doing the same thing you’ve done for two generations, and hope against hope for a different result.

President Obama recently announced that his Presidential Library will be built on the south side of the bankrupt city of Chicago. I can’t help but think that’s fitting.


The Obama administration has been touting any good news they can find about the economy, but in Los Angeles, California, things aren’t going well for the city’s poor.

Los Angeles County’s homeless population has grown by 12 percent during the past two years amid a sluggish economic recovery that has left the poorest residents of the second-largest U.S. metropolitan area falling farther behind, a study released on Monday found.

The Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority’s report cited stagnant or falling wages among the lowest-income earners, a local jobless rate that remains above state and national averages, and a worsening lack of affordable housing.

I note this for two reasons. Number one, if the President of the United States was a Republican, this would be national news. It’s always amazing how homelessness supposedly rears its ugly head during those administrations, but wire reports like this Reuters one get ignored during Democratic administrations.

And number two, Los Angeles has had only1 Republican mayor since 1961. Just sayin’.


Are we spending enough on education? The money going toward it keeps getting higher and higher, but the test scores don’t get any better. The governor of Maryland recently decided not to take $67 million that state lawmakers set aside as an increase to education spending, and instead use it to shore up the state’s pension system. Public employee pensions – those hard-bargained union benefits – have been literally bankrupting cities across the country, and the governor is trying to keep the promise the state government made to state workers. But at the price of children’s education?

Well, consider this. Other state agencies are getting their budgets cut at a time when Maryland’s education spending, now at $7.5 billion, is a record amount for them. And here are some details from the governor:

Hogan suggested Baltimore mismanaged the resources it already had. He accused officials of “losing” $70 million over the course of a year and cited a Baltimore Sun investigation that showed schools paid out $42 million in generous leave policies. He also pointed out that many local governments spend roughly half their budgets on education, but the city spends less than 15 percent of its budget on schools.

“Baltimore City, unlike the rest of the state, is underfunding education,” Hogan said.

A governor calling for fiscal responsibility before throwing more money at a problem. Could it be that he’s…why yes, he’s a Republican.

But Democrats run the city, and in spite of getting $467 million from Obama’s stimulus package earmarked specifically for education, they’re still trying to convince you that Republicans hate children and don’t care about education because they won’t let the city just keep wasting what they have and getting more. Just a reminder; only 1 Republican mayor since 1947.

So am I just trying to point a finger of blame? Well, the problems are quite evident, and there’s been 1-party rule in these cities for at least a generation, so the way I see it, the finger points itself. All I’m saying is that if the same remedies are tried that have failed for so long, how can anyone with a new idea be considered “hateful”, especially if it hasn’t been tried?

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What’s Your Opinion of Opinion Polling? https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3629 https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3629#respond Thu, 18 Jun 2015 18:26:00 +0000 http://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3629 The science of polling the general public has had its good and bad times, and it appears it’s going through one of those rough patches at the moment. A friend of mine refers to polls as “cricket races”; basically a snapshot of where things are in a particular race, that has as much bearing on […]

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The science of polling the general public has had its good and bad times, and it appears it’s going through one of those rough patches at the moment. A friend of mine refers to polls as “cricket races”; basically a snapshot of where things are in a particular race, that has as much bearing on our lives as a race amongst crickets. If it’s a slow news day, release the results from a poll, and call it news.

Some might put the word “science” in the phrase “science of polling” in scare quotes, not convinced that it’s much of a science at all. I do have some respect for those whose lives are in various statistical occupations. It seems like a black art, but, for example, one pharmaceutical client I worked for years ago had a Quality Assurance group that tested the products coming into the warehouse before they could be shipped out, and they explained quite a bit to me.  I couldn’t relate what they said now – I really can’t remember it all – but basically, given a good random sample, they could give you a good reading on whether or not the batch that just came in was good enough to ship out. Yeah, the only way to be totally sure was to test it all, but to get close enough to 100% sure without going overboard, there was a lot of science backing up their procedures.

Sampling people, on the other hand, is nowhere near as straightforward as sampling pharmaceuticals. People can say one thing, and yet do another. Which apparently happened in a big way over in the UK recently, when the conservative Tories trounced the liberal Labor Party in national elections, gaining their first outright majority since 1992. This even though Nate Silver, the US polling expert, had a look at all the UK polls and proclaimed that a Tory win of a majority of seats in Parliament was “vanishingly small when the polls closed – around 1 in 500.”

So much for that prediction. But the predictive value of polls is lessened when the pollsters themselves hide some of their results. It happened in the UK, and it happens quite a bit, apparently. No pollster wants to publish results that wind up being way out of line with those from other polls. No one wants to be the outlier, but that’s what happened in the UK. A last-minute poll by one group got the percentages virtually dead on to what the voting results were, but they didn’t publish it, “chickening out”, as the group’s CEO explained. It’s a herd mentality that we see in news coverage as well.

What this herd mentality gets us are reporters that cover stories because other reporters are covering them. And because journalists tend to lean liberal and vote Democratic, it’s stories on the Left that get more coverage. That’s where the herd migrates. As I’ve mentioned before, that situation is fertile ground for a network like Fox News that will get the scoop on stories on the Right, because the herd is busy elsewhere.

So then, do pollsters migrate that way? Turns out, yes, they do. In the UK, polling companies have consistently exaggerated the liberal side of the equation since the 1970s. Try as they might to correct for this, it just keeps happening. Is this a liberal bias, exactly? Well, my question would be that, if it isn’t bias, wouldn’t you think that errors like this would happen in both directions and equalize themselves out? But it so often seems to get tilted one direction. If it’s not bias, then what is it?

In the UK, they have a group of voters they call “shy Tories”; people who give politically correct answers to pollsters, but then vote conservative anyway. This is one of the problems with the speech police that shun those who don’t tow the PC line; polls get skewed. This is not just a problem in the UK, either. Silver notes that it’s happening more and more across the globe. Not surprisingly, the Western World’s culture keeps getting more and more liberal, and while those on the Right may wish to say the right to avoid the hassle, at least voting is still done by secret ballot.

But can “shy conservatives” really explain decades of error that are so lopsided in showing an advantage to the Left? The big question is; if it isn’t pollster bias, how would all this look any different if it was?

Given such problems with polling, whatever the reason, how does this affect our politics? James Taranto of the Wall Street Journal has speculated that liberal bias in news reporting can cause liberal politicians to underestimate the problems that their policy decisions are causing. The same thing goes for polling that tends to hide the conservative displeasure at those policies. Liberal politicians get an overly rosy view of how things are going, and thus, as Taranto suggests, make unforced errors regarding policies or campaigning because they don’t have a true picture.

Skewed polling can cut both ways, and is a disservice to all voters. An inflated poll number for a liberal politician could cause liberal voters to stay home, thinking their guy is inevitable, or it could cause conservative voters to stay home, thinking their guy is already doomed. Or both these conditions could occur, depressing voter turnout in general, and giving the few who do show up control over the many.

Of course the lesson there is, forget the polls and get out there and vote.

Another lesson is that commentators aren’t the best people to be telling political parties what lessons to learn. Here’s NBC’s Chuck Todd noting some of them.

If the Republicans should have learned a lesson if the UK conservatives lost, what should they learn if the UK conservatives won a major victory? Since the UK liberals lost, should the Democrats learn something? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

One problem I have with polls is when they ask people questions for which those people have no expertise. “What is the current state of the national economy?” is a pointless question to ask of those of us who have no economic expertise. It’s about like asking “How far is the Sun from the Earth?” In either case, the poll result doesn’t change reality, and reality can be discovered by means much more reliable than a poll.

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Indiana’s Religious Freedom Restoration Act https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3625 https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3625#respond Tue, 31 Mar 2015 21:33:00 +0000 http://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3625 The state of Indiana has come under fire for passing their version of the federal Religious Freedom Restoration Act. RFRA, as it’s called, was passed in response to court cases that eroded First Amendment protections of the exercise of religion. Religious freedom used to be judged on a case-by-case basis, considering whether each law had […]

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The state of Indiana has come under fire for passing their version of the federal Religious Freedom Restoration Act. RFRA, as it’s called, was passed in response to court cases that eroded First Amendment protections of the exercise of religion. Religious freedom used to be judged on a case-by-case basis, considering whether each law had specific exemptions for religious groups. Charles Schumer, Democratic Senator from New York, introduced a bill in 1993 to set a standard on how religious freedom cases should be considered; using the same standard that another First Amendment protection – freedom of speech – was adjudicated. I’ll get to the details of that standard in a moment. The bill passed the US Senate 97-3, and by acclamation in the House. Bill Clinton signed it on November 16, 1993. Today, that same action at the state level is being called “bigoted” by Democrats.

States have been doing this ever since a Supreme Court decision said that the federal RFRA didn’t apply to the states. Most of the states that have one use language identical to the one Clinton signed. But while religious freedom used to be supported by Democrats, the rise of a particular protected class (and reliable Democratic voting bloc) changed all that; homosexuals. Once again, as we have seen so many times, politics trumps everything else for the Left, even, apparently, the Bill of Rights.

The fear being stoked is that this will allow Christian businesses to turn away gays just for being gay. Here are a couple of articles that are lists of frequently asked questions about the Indiana RFRA, and they explain, no, that sort of discrimination is not protected. If a Christian denies service to someone simply because they are gay, on the grounds that it’s a sin according to Christian doctrine, you would have a tough time proving those religious grounds in court. According to Christianity, we are all sinners. None of us are perfect. So that business owner would have to deny service to everyone, including him- or herself.

Participation, one way or another, in a same-sex marriage ceremony has been the typical cause of contention. And all of the examples that I’ve seen that have been taken to court are regarding business owners that would bake cakes, take pictures, or arrange flowers for a gay customer for any purpose other than a same-sex wedding ceremony. This is most definitely not discrimination against gays because they’re gay. It is, however, a religious objection to a ceremony that the business owner does not wish to participate in.

Let’s be clear. The purpose of these laws based on the federal Religious Freedom Restoration Act is simple. When you go to court, you can claim freedom of speech in your defense. You might not win, but it is something that you can claim and upon which you can make a case, and it must be taken into consideration. All RFRA does is ensure that you can claim freedom of religion, either individually or as a “closely-held corporation”, as the Supreme Court has put it. (If you believe corporations aren’t part of that freedom of religion, I wonder how you feel about corporations like the NY Times and CNN having freedom of speech.)

RFRA allows a person’s free exercise of religion to be “substantially burdened” by a law only if the law furthers a “compelling governmental interest”, and in the “least restrictive means of furthering that compelling governmental interest.” It does not invalidate all of Indiana’s other ordinances about discrimination based on sexual orientation. You don’t get to yell, “RFRA!”, and get magically exempted from them. This is not open season on anyone; gay, Jew, woman, what have you. And the best proof of that is that none of the states or the federal government, for almost a quarter of a century, have gone down anything like a slippery slope. All opponents of Indiana’s RFRA have are hypotheticals that have failed to materialize since 1993. The only discrimination so far has been against Christian business owners who would rather not participate in a specific ceremony, or in the instance of the Hobby Lobby Supreme Court case, not contribute to what they considered the taking of a life. This is not about gays, it’s about marriage. It’s not about women, it’s about abortion. It’s about religion, and the free exercise thereof, in spite of the efforts of celebrities like Apple’s Tim Cook, or actor Ashton Kutchner, to deflect blame and paint this as bigotry against individuals. It is denying a First Amendment protection that has been with us since the founding.

And I know there are Christians who would bake a cake or take pictures of a same-sex wedding ceremony. If they are OK with that, more power to them. There are different ways to make a moral statement. All I’m saying is that the government doesn’t get to decide how I act out my morality. They may decide that my morals don’t line up with community standards, but folks in Indiana can at least make the case that they otherwise could not, and the same case they could make today at the federal level.

President Bill Clinton, speaking at the 1993 RFRA signing, and about the Founding Fathers, said this, “And one of the reasons they worked so hard to get the first amendment into the Bill of Rights at the head of the class is that they well understood what could happen to this country, how both religion and Government could be perverted if there were not some space created and some protection provided. They knew that religion helps to give our people the character without which a democracy cannot survive.” Today, his party is now trying to sacrifice those protections on the altar of politics. I love the irony of that analogy, but I fear that they don’t fully understand the god they’re now serving.

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What Works and What Doesn’t: Health Care https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3609 https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3609#respond Thu, 03 Jul 2014 15:53:00 +0000 http://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3609 (This is part of the script for the latest episode of my podcast, "Consider This!". You can listen to it on the website, or subscribe to it in iTunes, Stitcher Radio, Blubrry, Player.fm, or the podcast app of your choice.) Liberal columnist Ezra Klein, writing in the Washington Post, June of 2009: If you ordered […]

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(This is part of the script for the latest episode of my podcast, "Consider This!". You can listen to it on the website, or subscribe to it in iTunes, Stitcher Radio, Blubrry, Player.fm, or the podcast app of your choice.)

Liberal columnist Ezra Klein, writing in the Washington Post, June of 2009:

If you ordered America’s different health systems worst-functioning to best, it would look like this: individual insurance market, employer-based insurance market, Medicare, Veterans Health Administration.

Yeah, he really said that, and it was obviously untrue back then. But that didn’t stop his love of socialized medicine. Here he is again in 2011:

The thing about the Veteran’s Administration’s health-care system? It’s socialized. Not single payer. Not heavily centralized. Socialized. As in, it employs the doctors and nurses. Owns the hospitals. And though I think there’s some good reason to believe its spending growth is somewhat understated — it benefits heavily from medical trainees, for instance — accounting for that difference still means a remarkable recent performance.

He also called the VA system, “the program is one of the most remarkable success stories in American public policy.” Of course now everyone’s saying that the system has been awful for decades, so you can’t blame Obama for it. While that’s certainly true, you can blame liberal pundits who have been trying to suggest for years that the performance of the VA means that ObamaCare ought to work. It seems like they’ll say anything to get their policies enacted. Never mind reality.

And they’re making the same claim as a certain presidential candidate did 6 years or so ago. So in a sense, you can blame the President for foisting on us a system based on one that was, and is, a money pit and an abject failure, and which is utterly dishonest about those failures. They can, or should, be able to see what works and what doesn’t, but I guess Obama is going with the idea that this time, it’s gonna’ work.

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What Works and What Doesn’t: State Economies https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3607 https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3607#respond Tue, 01 Jul 2014 15:53:00 +0000 http://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3607 (This is part of the script for the latest episode of my podcast, “Consider This!”. You can listen to it on the website, or subscribe to it in iTunes, Stitcher Radio, Blubrry, Player.fm, or the podcast app of your choice.) Sometimes people ask what the real difference is between the Republicans and Democrats, and sometimes, […]

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(This is part of the script for the latest episode of my podcast, “Consider This!”. You can listen to it on the website, or subscribe to it in iTunes, Stitcher Radio, Blubrry, Player.fm, or the podcast app of your choice.)

Sometimes people ask what the real difference is between the Republicans and Democrats, and sometimes, for certain issues, I’m inclined to agree; not much. However, when it comes to promoting economic growth, there’s certainly a trend that favors one over the other.

It’s been said that the states are the laboratories of American democracy. Though more and more autonomy has been taken from them by the federal government, there is still enough that one can look across the country from sea to shining sea and see what works and what doesn’t. So what has the government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis told us about the year 2013?

Here were the top 10 states in GDP growth:

  • North Dakota — 9.7 percent
  • Wyoming — 7.6 percent
  • West Virginia — 5.1 percent
  • Oklahoma — 4.2 percent
  • Idaho — 4.1 percent
  • Colorado — 3.8 percent
  • Utah — 3.8 percent
  • Texas — 3.7 percent
  • South Dakota — 3.1 percent
  • Nebraska — 3.0 percent

This was all while the nation’s GDP growth was just 1.8 percent. Tom Blumer writing at the NewsBusters website noted that only Colorado and West Virginia could be considered something other than deep-red states — and despite having several prominent Democrats in statewide and national office, they both arguably lean red.

And let’s not forget, as I covered back in February, that Wisconsin, under Republican Governor Scott Walker, went from running a deficit to a $1 billion surplus by cutting taxes.

In all of this, you’d think that someone would have predicted such an economic outcome from these policies. Oh wait, they did, and those people are called “conservatives”. So if you indeed see what works and what doesn’t, and still ignore it, you might be a Democrat.

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Defending ObamaCare With Anecdotes https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3538 https://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3538#respond Mon, 31 Mar 2014 16:20:00 +0000 http://www.thepaytons.org/essays/considerettes/?p=3538 You’ve no doubt heard them yourself. I’ve heard them quite a bit; on social media, on blogs, and even in TV commercials. I’m talking about people with their own personal stories about how the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, aka ObamaCare, has helped them personally. It’s great to hear that people are able to […]

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You’ve no doubt heard them yourself. I’ve heard them quite a bit; on social media, on blogs, and even in TV commercials. I’m talking about people with their own personal stories about how the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, aka ObamaCare, has helped them personally.

It’s great to hear that people are able to get coverage for things that they either couldn’t get covered for before, or for less money. Who wouldn’t be in favor of that, and be glad for these people? It feels good hearing how people have benefited from this government program.

And that’s what those, especially on social media, are trying to say with their success story; this is a good thing, because it worked for me. Then I have to ask, what do we make of this story?

William Rivers Pitt, is the senior editor and lead columnist at the leftwing web site TruthOut. He has his own story which he posted at the Democratic Underground website, a forum for the far Left. (Have we figured out where this guy’s politics lie on the spectrum?) He first extolled the wonders of Obamacare, writing about his experience in getting signed up. System goes down in the middle of the session. No problem. Call the 800 number and finish the process there. “No. Big. Deal. Thanks, Obama.” That’s how he signs off that post.

And then reality set in. In another post later on, he relates his experience, not with signing up for Obamacare, but actually trying to use it.

What I’ve learned after a three-month war with these fiends: the ACA says the insurance companies cannot deny coverage to those with pre-existing conditions, which is true as far as it goes. But they can deny coverage for the life-saving medications necessary to treat those conditions. The insurance company I signed up with through the ACA exchange just denied coverage of my wife’s multiple sclerosis medication. We’re "covered," to the tune of $700 a month…just not for what she really needs.

He signs off that post quite a bit differently. Later he said he feels like a dupe, and wishes he had a time machine to undo what he’d done. His criticisms get to the point that the DU folks stopped allowing him to comment on his own post.

So then let’s consider this. Does this prove that Obamacare is an abject failure? No. Additionally, good experiences with it don’t prove that it is a success, either. If you contend that one is true, then you have to accept the other, and they come to opposite conclusions. Well then, what does any of this prove, other than that some people are doing better and others doing worse?

The answer is, it proves nothing.

Now you may be asking, “Wait a minute, what? You spent all that time talking about a personal experience that validates your opinion, and now you say that it proves nothing?” Yup, that’s exactly what I’m saying.

Let’s consider some hypothetical stories of the “it worked for me” variety.

“I have my own land and can bring up my kids away from the city, thanks to the government shafting those Indians.”

“My family farm is profitable again, and I’m out of debt to those bankers, ever since I bought those slaves. Glad it’s not illegal.”

“I took some foolish risks in the housing market. But thanks to the government bailout, my investment firm is back on its feet.”

For the obligatory disclaimer, I am not comparing those who benefit from Obamacare to homesteaders who appropriated land, slave owners, or bank executives. What I am comparing are the personal experience stories that, from that person’s point of view, make the action by the government look just fine. If a feel-good story about how someone benefited from a government action, or inaction, is all it takes to validate it, then we’ve got to explain why certain government actions were ultimately overturned.

And we can, fortunately. The issue wasn’t whether or not some people benefited – somebody always does – but whether that action was morally or economically good for the country in the long run. The issue was the big picture, not the individual brush strokes. The irony is that a whole lot of people, who would reject the hypothetical personal experiences as validating, are now taking that very same tact. “Hey, it works for me. I’m sorry it doesn’t for you, but we all have to pay our fair share.” That kind of reasoning would be considered vile in so many other situations, but when their political and economic beliefs are at stake, suddenly they make it seem like, if you reject their reasoning, you must hate the poor or the sick or the banker. (Oh, sorry, that was just a hypothetical.)

I’ve covered on this blog the many reasons why I think Obamacare is a bad idea all around for the country. I think there are ways that should have been tried that would have alleviated the worst issues of our health insurance setup as it was that didn’t involve the government, and especially the IRS, involved in 1/6th of the economy. Republicans have had alternatives for a long time. But Democrats played the tried and true political game by declaring that something must be done, Obamacare is something, and therefore it must be done. And now that it’s causing a bunch of problems, they’re defending it with anecdotes. But as someone once reminded me, the plural form of the word “anecdote” is not “data”. A few individual stories about how “it works for me” does not constitute a serious defense of the program. The big picture is the issue, and the big picture here, and pictures elsewhere, show that it is essentially unsound, and will result in ever increasing need for cash to support it, and make health care more politicized that you could possibly imagine.

But hey, it works for you, right?

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