Pre-convention bounc…
Pre-convention bounce?

For the first time all year, President Bush has moved ahead of John Kerry in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projection, just as the Republican National Convention is getting underway.

The polling company says its latest numbers show Bush leading in states with 213 electoral votes, while Kerry is ahead in states with 207. There are 118 electoral votes in the toss-up column, and the magic number to win the White House is 270.

Over this past weekend, Arkansas, Virginia and Missouri moved from toss-up to “leans Bush.” Minnesota moved from “leans Kerry” to toss-up. Maine and Michigan moved in Kerry’s direction – from toss-up to “leans Kerry.”

Rasmussen considers any state where polls show a candidate leading by less than five percentage points to be a toss-up.

Of course, this has nothing to do with the convention, but most likely the results of the Swift Boat Vets’ challenge. I wasn’t sure if “Vietnam Fatigue” had already hit in this campaign season, but perhaps not. If that’s true, then further revelations from their book could be Kerry’s undoing.

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