Doing some more catc…
Doing some more catch-up today. This time, the recently “cease-fired” battle in southern Lebanon between Israel and Hizbollah

This particular battle had quite a lot of popular support, from both the Right and the Left, in Israel. Israel’s peace movement was essentially silenced as either they didn’t speak up and/or they agreed with the premise. This was also noted on the Radio Open Source program of 7/31, in a show highlighting Israeli reactions. How the battle was prosecuted certainly has its critics, but hardly anyone disagreed with the justness of it.

And who can we at least partially thank for the necessity of it? Why the UN, of course. While their “peacekeeper” were flying their flag along with Hizbollah’s, Iran and Syria were rearming these terrorists (Hizbollah, not the UN). Israel tried to make this a quick and effective battle by sending in special forces to take out enemy positions early, but what they ran into were more and better bunkers than they’d known about. Hizbollah was showering Israel with far more rockets than they were thought to have. Much of this digging in and rearming occurred during the 2 years that UN 1559, the resolution saying that Hizbollah must be disarmed, was in force. Guess this august body was quite sure of what needed to be done, but no one was willing to do it. (Until Israel started the job. Then, of course, the UN balked.)

I wonder if Israel will now have 2 years to abide by the UN resolution calling for a cease-fire. No, in fact Kofi Annan wanted the fighting to stop before the appointed hour in the resolution.

As I noted earlier, Thomas Sowell said that there have been more cease-fires in the Middle East than anywhere else, and that doesn’t seem to have solved the Arab-Israeli issue. I don’t think this one will either. Here are some of the pros and cons of this:

Pros:

  • Civilian deaths will stop: Well, Lebanese civilian deaths will stop, which is a good thing in and of itself. I really don’t think that this cease-fire will stop Israeli civilian deaths, especially since it was Hizbollah that started the shooting. Letting them continue on to fight another day just delays when that begins again.
  • Israel forced the UN to actually do something about UN 1559: The United Nations sat on its collective hands for 2 years, allowing and hardly discussing the violating of an international border by Hizbollah. Is this the way to prevent war, by allowing one side to attack and kidnap? Is this they way to achieve fairness, by only passing resolutions when the other side defends itself? But in any event, the cease-fire will allow forces to come in and hopefully start the job of enforcement that should have been started 24 months ago.

Cons:

  • Hizbollah lives to fight another day: We are going to see further Israeli casualties in the future. It’s simply a matter of when. This new resolution, 1701 (not a Star Trek reference, for those that may get it), also calls for the disarming of Hizbollah. Think it’ll happen? I’m not talking about whether Hizbollah gives up some of it’s rockets, I’m talking about disarming. No, I don’t think will. Instead, they’ll give up their older tech in likely anticipation of getting longer-range missiles from Syria and Iran, while the UN “peacekeepers” mill about.
  • Hizbollah is legitimized: The UN is treating like a country. According to Andy McCarthy at National Review, the resolution…

    doesn’t purport to direct any UN member nation to make Hezbollah cease firing least of all Lebanon, the purported sovereign of this territory. Instead, it appeals to Hezbollah directly in the same paragraph in which it addresses Israel, as if there were no difference in status between the two and “calls on” it to stand down.

  • The resolution has no teeth: It was not passed with what’s known as Chapter 7 provisions, so the international force can’t actually do anything if Hizbollah starts shooting at Israel again. As Michael Rubin puts it (also on National Review), the force thus becomes so much “decoration”. Hizbollah doesn’t even have to return the kidnapped soldiers, the flashpoint of this battle.
  • Instability in Israel: If just one more rocket is launched from southern Lebanon or one more attack made, the Olmert administration is done for. While the cease-fire is ostensibly insured by the UN, it’ll be Olmert that pays the price if it fails.
  • Israel is essentially punished for properly leaving Lebanon: As they say, no good deed goes unpunished, at least in the Middle East. Click here for a list of the sacrifices made and costs incurred by Israel in the one year since moving out of Gaza and portions of the West Bank. Note also the thanks they got in return from the Palestinians.

And, as ScrappleFace notes, if cease-fires work so well, how about we call a cease-fire in the war on terror, eh? Think Osama will abide by it?

(Other notable reactions to the cease-fire are at Captain’s Quarters and Power Line.)

Overall, I think Israel got a raw deal. They may have made some gains against Hizbollah, but not enough to ensure their security. Thank you, United Nations.

The media have been an interesting part of this conflict. They come out with a number of black eyes, especially regarding photography (or as Glenn Reynolds has referred to it as, “fauxtography”). As noted by my blogger-in-law Jim, and heavily documented at “EU Referendum”, the video and photos coming in from the front have been manipulated, either intentionally or not. The fact that this happened, as far as I know, exclusively on the Hizbollah/Lebanese side of the equation make the press look like patsies, full of bias, or both. (It doesn’t say much for the Arabs, either, when you’d be hard-pressed to find nearly the same attempts at manipulation by civilians on the Israeli side.)

This hasn’t been solely a pictorial issue. CNN International coverage of the conflict was highlighted by a report that minimized Israeli deaths while reporting heavily on Lebanese ones, and inferring that Israelis would intentionally target civilians, among other things. The foreign media in general covered Beirut extensively, but virtually ignored Haifa. They’ve called Israeli leaflets asking civilians to leave a soon-to-be-attacked area “propaganda”, ignored bad news for Hizbollah, reported their own opinion in news, and ignored dissention against Hizbollah in Lebanon.

As I’ve noted before, typically, your political persuasion can generally predict who you side with in Arab-Israeli conflicts. It shouldn’t be that way, given a clear reading of history, but it generally does. Conservatives tend to side with Israel, liberals with the Arabs. Now, given the leanings of the press in the coverage, it further adds credibility to the charge that they have a liberal bias. Just another of a long line of such lists of evidence.

To be honest, I’ve found myself on CNN as often as FoxNews in the recent weeks, mostly because I wanted current news rather than analysis or opinion, and Anderson Cooper was doing more of that than Bill O’Reilly or Greta van Susteren. While you can point to some reports and programs that were balanced, when you look at those that could be considered biased for one side of the other, and when you see which side that bias almost always falls, the press, once again, falls into the camp that conservatives have always said it would.

But those that deny such a bias will also hand-wave away such evidence as well. That I expect, but find increasingly amazing.

So in summary:

  • Israel: Short term win, medium term up in the air (thank you, UN), long term loss.
  • Hizbollah: Short term loss, medium term win.
  • United Nations: All term loss (toothless, cowardly; needs to visit the Wizard of Oz).
  • The Media: Loss. Again. Not really news, so to speak.

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